1. INTRODUCTION:

In 19^th century, several small European Nations first established customs unions and then formed alliance with France, which has benefited from preferential access to the British market. When the multilateral trading system was established after world was II, a reflection on regionalism was embodied in the GATT, which authorized the creation of free trade area and customs union. Beginning with the treaty of Rome, which created the European community in 1958 many regional integration initiatives emerged. The economic reforms in India have been taken Place with the adoption of the policy of L.P.G. modal and after 1991 an outward looking foreign trade policy was adopted by India to improve its export and because of it India's trade relations with different countries of the world have to transformed. Since this period of time India's trade was extremely depended on the western countries, in order to diversify it's exports destinations from it's traditional partners like European union, united state and middle east countries, India has launched it's

"Look east Policy" in 1991. India's engagement with ASEAN has started with this policy. And along with it because of new wave of regionalism since 1991, the proliferation of regional trade agreements in world has increased significantly. India did not remain exception to this new regionalism, India also formed number of regional trade agreement with different countries of world.

In the way India announced it's "look east policy in 1991, in 1992 India became a sectoral dialogue partner of ASEAN, which is a geo-political and economic organization with 10 member countries, was formed in August 1967. India became a full dialogue partner of ASEAN in 1995 and a member of ASEAN regional forum (ARF) in 1996. And finally the Indo-ASEAN free trade agreement was signed on 13 August 2009 in Bangkok and India launched it's "Act east policy" in 2014.

Indo-ASEAN trade agreement will boost bilateral trade between the two regions. ASEAN is major trading partner of India and India's trade with ASEAN is mainly concentrated in (Singapore, Malaysia, Hongkong, Indonesia, and Thailand-ASEAN-5). These five countries remain the largest markets for India export in the ASEAN region as well as the largest sources for India's import from ASEAN region. Among them Singapore is the largest destination for India goods and the largest source of import for India.

2. RTA: Definition and forms of economic integration:-

In the WTO, regional trade agreements (RTAs) are defined as reciprocal trade agreements between two or more partners.

According to Inter-American development Bank, "Regional trade Agreements are usually established between neighboring countries to reduce trade barriers like duties on import, regional trade agreements violates the most favored Nations (MFN), a fundamental principal of world trade organization (WTO).

Forms of Economic Integration:-

Free trade Agreement:

Member countries remove tariff barriers in trade of goods within the free trade area. However, each member maintains its own tariff policy vis-à-vis the third country. Ex-EFTA (established in 1960), AFTA (established in 1992), NAFTA (established in 1994)

Customs union:

In addition to the free the agreement, in the customs union, member countries fix a Common external Tariff (CET) vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Ex-European Community since 1968, EU-Turkey Customs Union since 1996.

Common market:

The common market consists of the opening of all markets including service and production factors (labor and capital markets). However, its modality and effective implementation are conditioned by political and social regulations. Ex-EC since 1993 (completion of the single market), MERCOSUR and Andean Community aims at establishing a common market

Economic union:

The economic union is characterized by a certain level of harmonization regarding economic policies. This is intended to abolish all discrimination related to differences in public policies among the member countries. Ex-Current European Union (not complete)

Monetary union:

In a monetary union, member countries adopt a common currency as well as harmonize economic policies. Ex-Euro Area (19 countries out of 28 Member State of the EU)

3. Reasons behind the growth of Regional trade agreements:-

Trade liberalization is major reasons behind the growth of regional trade agreements and other reason are-

· Lower tariff and Non-tariff Barriers.

· Deeper regional economic integration.

· Expansion of export.

· More investment and Jobs.

· Secure Borders.

· Preferential treatment and duty free-access.

4. Advantages of Regional trade agreements:-

Often in the political world trade is seen as a game of tit for tat but the theory of comparative advantage and free trade suggests, that a country can increase its economic welfare by cutting tariffs -even if these tariff cuts are not reciprocated. In other words, cutting tariffs is a win-win situation, the below examples shows how reducing import tariffs leads to a net gain in economic welfare for the country (even in other don't respond by cutting their import tariffs)

i. The removal of tariffs leads to lower prices for consumers and an increase in consumer surplus of areas 1+2+3+4.

ii. Import will increase from Q3-Q2 to Q4-Q1.

iii. the govt will lose tax revenue of area 3.

iv. Domestics firms producing this good will sell less and lose producer surplus egual to area 1.

v. However, overall these will be an increase in economic welfare on 2+4 [(1+2+3+4-(1+3)]

other advantages are-

· Increased economic growth,

· more dynamic business climate.

· Lower government spending.

· boost foreign direct investment.

· Technology improved.

· Improved Quality of life and economic welfare.

· Better foreign relations.

· Improved production efficiency.

· Economics of scale.

5. Trend of Regional trade agreements in India:-

Trade agreement with countries like Nepal, Singapore, Finland, Malaysia, Bhutan, Myanmar, Japan, South Korea, Afghanistan, Chile, and regions like ASEAN, SAFT, APTA, have been signed and enforced so for.

India has signed 11FTAs, and 5 limited preferential trade Agreements and negotiation 17 FTAS, including expansion of the existing FTA/PTAs,

India's Regional Trade Agreements (Multilateral)

Agreements	Partners	Year of Enforcement
Asia-Pacific Trade Area (APTA)	Bangladesh, China, India, South Korea and Sri Lanka	2005
South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA)	Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan	2006
India-MERCOSUR PTA	Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay	2009
ASEAN-India FTA	Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam	2010

Source: PHD Research Bureau, Compiled from MOCS.

India's Trade Agreements (Bilateral)

Agreements	Year of Enforcement
India-Sri Lanka FTA	2000
India-Nepal Trade Treaty	1999
Agreement of Cooperation with Nepal to control Unauthorized Trade	2002
Treaty of transit between India and Nepal	2009
India-Afghanistan PTA	2003
India-Singapore CECA	2005
India-Bhutan Trade Agreements	2006
India-Chile PTA	2007
India-Korea CEPA	2010
India-malaysia CECA	2011
India-Japan CEPA	2011
India-Finland Agreements on Economic Cooperation	2009

Source: PHD Research Bureau, Compiled from MOCS.

6. Indo-ASEAN comprehensive Economic co-operation agreement:-

The Indo- ASEAN free trade areas (IAFTA) is it a free trade area among the ten member states of the Association of south east Asian Nations (ASEAN) and India. The initial frame work agreements was signed on 8 the October 2003 in Bali, Indonesia and the final agreements was on 13 August 2009 The free trade area came into effect on 1 January 2010. IAFTA emerged from a mutual interest of both parties to expand their economic ties in the Asia-Pacific region "India's look east plicy" was reciprocated by similar interests of many ASEAN countries, to expand their interactions westward.

Post the implementation of India-ASEAN CECA in 2010, trade between India and ASEAN nations USD 52.6 billion in 2010 to USD 64.9 billion in 2016. India's exports to ASEAN witnessed a drop from USD 37.89 billion in 2013 to USD 26.38 billion in 2016. Contrary, India's imports declined from USD 42.31 billion to USD 38.22 billion during the same period.

ASEAN

S. No.	Country	2015-16 (USD Million)	2016-17 (USD Million)	Growth (%)
1	Brunei	554.02	627.85	13.33
2	Cambodia	54.43	36.1	-33.67
3	Indonesia	13,131.93	13,427.99	2.25
4	LAO PD RP	180.03	207.38	15.19
5	Malaysia	9,083.83	8933.59	-1.65
6	Myanmar	984.27	1,067.25	8.43
7	Philippines	542.16	494.62	-8.77
8	Singapore	7,308.38	7,086.57	-3.04
9	Thailand	5,510.16	5,415.40	-1.72
10	Vietnam SOC REP	2,560.39	3,320.56	29.69
	Total	39,909.60	40,617.31	1.77
India's Total		381,006.62	384,355.55	0.88
% Share		10.4748	10.5676

Source: PHD Research Bureau, Compiled from MOCS.

7. NEED OF STUDY:

India will likely see, the golden period of the goods and services trade between 1991 to 2019 with incredible growth opportunities. The economic reforms in India have taken place with the adoption of the policy of L.P.G. and after 1991 an outward looking foreign trade policy was adopted by India to improve its export and because of it India's trade relations with different countries of the world have also transformed. since this period of time India's trade was extremely depended on the western countries, in order to diversify its exports destinations from its traditional partners like European union, united state and middle east countries, India has launched its "look east policy in 1991. India's engagement with ASEAN has started with this policy and along with it because of "new wave of regionalism since 1991, the proliferation of regional trade agreements in world has increased significantly. India did not remain exception to this new regionalism, India also formed number of regional trade agreements with different countries of the world.

· India because a sectoral dialogue partner of ASEAN in 1992

· Full dialogue partner during the fifth ASEAN summit in Bangkok in 1995.

· Member of ASEAN regional forum (ARF) in 1996.

· Holding summit-level meeding on an annual basis since-2002

· In August 2009, India signed a FTA with ASEAN members in Thailand.

· "Look east policy" to "Act-east policy" in the 12th summit in 2014, is a milestone steps of India in order to complement its look east policy. As the scope and density of relations between India and ASEAN has been steadily rising. The study is an important contribution in order to illustrates and trade structure with ASEAN'S major economic bloc ASEAN, to find out the trade pattern of India with ASEAN countries and the study also analyzes the impact of implementation of IAFTA on merchandise trade of India.

8. AIM OF STUDY:

Today's world is based on the trade and commerce. Various research have developed theories and models to explain the impact of RTAs on trade creation and trade diversion. This research aims to find out the trade pattern of India with ASEAN countries since globalization and the study also analyses the impact of implementation of Indo-ASEAN free trade agreement on merchandise and trade of India between 1991 to 2019.

9. OBJECTIVE OF STUDY:

To examine the share of India's trade with ASEAN During the period of before and after Indo-ASEAN free trade agreements (IAFTA)

10. HYPOTHESIS:

H₀: There is no significant difference in the share of India's trade with ASEAN-5 before and after Indo-ASEAN free trade agreement.

H₁: There is significant difference in the share of India's trade with ASEAN-5 before and after Indo-ASEAN free trade agreement.

11. LITERATURE REVIEW:

The negotiations between India and the ASEAN representatives during the past few years have created considerable interest among researchers across the world. Pal and Dasgupta (2009) studied the tariff. schedule of India and made a preliminary evaluation of the India-ASEAN FTA. By analyzing India's commitment schedule, and by studying the production structure of the ASEAN members, the present study concluded that sectors such as tea, spices, coffee and rubber will be negatively affected. The marine products, textiles and garments, and auto components industries are also likely to face increased competition. The study points out that the net effect of the trade agreements crucially depends on the ability of the Government of India to redistribute some of the increased wealth gained from this trade agreement to those industries negatively affected by the agreement. Pal and Dasgupta (2008) concluded that, on the basis of a similar study, India was unlikely to benefit in the short term from the India. ASEAN FTA. They pointed out that ASEAN was not a natural trading partner of India, and, unlike China, has not established close relations with the region. However, the agreement may make strategic sense in the long term, if India looks at the option of becoming a hub for services exports to the ASEAN region.

Harilal (2010) made a similar study that assessed the likely impact of the India. ASEAN agreement on the economy of Kerala in southern India. In fact, southern India, particularly Kerala, and South-East Asia have many features in common. This is especially true in the case of the agricultural and allied sectors and the agro based industries. The agro-climatic conditions and cropping patterns are almost the same in the two region. On the basis of India's tariff schedule and the provision for rules of origin (RoO) under AIFTA, the study concluded that AIFTA would be detrimental to the interests of tropical commodity producers in Kerala. This is due to the competitive nature of the production structure of Kerala vis-à-vis the ASEAN members. Free trade in tropical commodities under the provision of AIFTA is likely to add the already existing problem of severe price instability with regard to these products, in addition to pushing down the share of the producers in the value chain.

Lee and Liew (2007) also attempted to measure the impact of the then proposed India-ASEAN Free trade Area (FTA). They used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADA), and the Phillips and person (PP) test results to indicate that India and ASEAN were relatively integrated with regard to goods and services markets, however, they found that the purchasing Power Parity (PPP) evidence to be comparatively weaker, Financial market integration however, was found to be significantly incomplete. The main implication of this finding is that the impact of liberalization will be great on financial market, Due to the weal PPP evidence, the goods and services markets will also experience a substantial impact from liberalization. Therefore it was suggested that the two regions could further exploit their FTA partnership in their complementary areas, particularly in both the goods and services markets, and financial markets.

Sen, Asher and Rajan (2004) studied the then status and future prospects of India-ASEAN economic relations, and suggested that significant potential existed for greater economic cooperation between the sides. However, their study was not based on any theoretical model- building exercise, Karmakar (2005) analyzed the opportunities in services trade that might arise out of Indian-ASEAN economic cooperation and assessed the net gains that could arise from liberalization of the service sector. They analyzed the economic scenario in the Asia-Pacific region and took a macro overview of the trade creation potential of an agreement on trade in services between India and the members of ASEAN. They suggested that, at least in the medium term, much could be gained from a bilateral engagement between India and ASEAN in services, especially as the latter region remains relatively closed to foreign service provider. However, their study was also not based on any theoretical closed to foreign service providers. However, their study was also not based no any torrential model. Although some studies attempted to study the possible impact of the India-ASEAN FTA. few were based on theoretical model building. Some of the more recent studies that have used models to analyze the likely impact of India-ASEAN FTA are discussed below.

Veeramani and Saini (2010) carried out a qualitative assessment of the impact of AIFTA on elected plantation commodities, i.e. coffee, tea and pepper, in India. A partial equilibrium modeling approach (SMART) and gravity models was used to simulate the likely increase in imports of the plantation commodities by India under the proposed tariff reduction schedules of the India-ASEAN FTA. tHE results suggested that AIFTA would lead to a significant increase in such imports by India, driven mainly by trade creation rather than trade diversion. The analysis showed that the proposed tariff reductions under the India' ASEAN trade agreement might lead to a significant loss of tariff revenue for the Government of India. However, the gain in consumer surplus (due to falls in domestic prices and the consequent reduction in dead-weight loss) would outweigh the tariff revenue loss, leading to a net welfare gain. However, Veeramani and Saini (2010) only discussed and analyzed the likely impact and welfare implications of the India-ASEAN FTA for India for some selected plantation commodities, using a partial equilibrium model to do so.

Ahmed (2010) investigated the sect oral dimensions of the India-ASEAN FTA as a result of tariff liberalization. Using GTAP and SMART models, the study showed that both India and ASEAN would gain in terms of welfare while the terms of trade for India would deteriorate. The study revealed that, in the case of India, the processed food products, grain crops, textiles and wearing apparel, light manufacturing goods and heavy manufacturing sectors were likely to be significantly affected. ASEANs exports of processed food items, and agricultural and fisheries products were likely to increase, which could have an adverse impact on employment and wages among the Indian working class. Ahmed also found that the present FTA would adversely affect India's trade balance and cause revenue losses for the Government. to Understand the impact on unskilled workers, the study considered sticky wages and allowing factors of production to adjust accordingly. The study analyzed the impact of the FTA with complete tariff elimination with regard to bilateral trade between India and ASEAN

12. METHODOLOGY, RESEARCH DESIGN AND TOOLS FOR DATA COLLECTION:

Research methodology helps to explain the theoretical frame work and methodology adopted in the study. It outline the various dimensions of the study and research objective and the set of methodologies adopted to accomplish those objectives.

The collection of data and selection of the sample are carried out on the basis of secondary data obtained from various published sources. To accomplish the research, following methodology have been used-

· Period of the data for the study is from 1991 to 2019 because of we know that India launched it's "look east Policy" in 1991, signed. FTA in August 2009 and launched it's "Act-east policy" in the 12th summit of ASEAN in 2014.

· Secondary sources of data have been collected through various published Books, News paper, literature, Journal, Articles, and websites etc, the major sources of secondary data have been the online database of ministry of commerce and other publication of Govet. of India as various issues of hand book of India satisfies, ASEAN statistics year book and economic survey.

Data have been properly classified and statistically analyzed with the appropriate tools such as mean, percentage change, correlation and compound annual growth rate etc.

· The study has been used for only top five (5) Nations of ASEAN country (Hongkong, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand)

· The study has been used for only ten top exported and imported commodities of India with ASEAN.

· The study has been used for only, mode 1 and 4 top services.

· In this study both merchandise and services trade of India with ASEAN include.

· The unit of exports and import and total merchandise trade volume are us $ millions.

13. Statical tools and techniques used:-

The tools and techniques used for analyzing the data for the study are-correlation percentage change, trend line, t-test. The ratio of contrary trend, Percentage share, MS Excel Software, Compound Annul growth Rate.

Correlation: For knowing the relationship between India's export and import with ASEAN, correlation co-efficient formulas are used to fine how strong a relationship is between data. The formulas return a value between-1 and +1

Where,

1= a strong positive relationship

-1= a strong Negative relationship

0= no relationship between variables,

Percentage change is used to calculate the total percentage change from the previous year to current year.

Trend line has been used to present the trend of India's trade with SEAN-5 countries.

As we know that Indo-ASEAN free trade agreement was signed in August 2009, so we have divided our study period into two grouse i.e. group one presents India's trade to ASEAN-5 before IAFTA came into effect and group two present India's trade to ASEAN-5 after IAFTA came into effect. So here we have applied t-test for comparing the differences between the sample mean of these two group by testing different hypotheses.

As we know that India launched it's "Act east Policy" in 2014. so we have divided our study period into two groups i.e. group one present India trade to ASEAN-5 before Act east policy and group two present India's trade to ASEAN-5 after Act east policy. So here we have applied t-test for comparing the differences between the sample mean of these two group by testing different hypotheses.

Ms Excel software used for creating graphs and average growth rate etc.

14 –Analysis and Interpretation of result-

India’s Export to and import from ASEAN Countries, Before Indo-ASEAN Trade agreement

Year	Export	Import
2001-02	3457.01	4387.22
2002-03	4618.54	5150.17
2003-04	5821.71	7433.11
2004-05	8425.89	9114.66
2005-06	10411.30	10883.67
2006-07	12607.43	18108.48
2007-08	16413.52	22674.81
2008-09	19140.63	26202.96
2009-10	18113.71	25797.96

Source: export-import data bank, ministry of commerce, Government of India. figure are in US Million Dollar.

India’s Export to and import from ASEAN Countries, After Indo-ASEAN Trade agreement

Year	Export	Import
2010-11	25627.89	30607.96
2011-12	36744.35	42158.84
2012-13	33008.21	42866.36
2013-14	33133.55	41278.09
2014-15	31812.58	44714.77
2015-16	25133.37	39901.60
2016-17	30961.62	40617.31
2017-18	342033.70	47133.69
2018-19	37471.14	59315.59

Source: export-import data bank, ministry of commerce, Government of India. figure are in US Million Dollar.

India’s Export to and import from ASEAN Countries (2001-02 t0 2018-19)

Source: export-import data bank, ministry of commerce, Government of India. figure are in US Million Dollar.

India’s Export to and import from ASEAN Countries (2001-02 t0 2018-19)

Source: export-import data bank, ministry of commerce, Government of India. figure are in US Million Dollar.

Group Statistics
	VAR00001	N	Mean	Std. Deviation	Std. Error Mean
trade	Before IAFTA India export	9	11001.0822	5917.89419	1972.63140
trade	After IAFTA India export	9	66214.0456	103518.77748	34506.25916

Independent Samples Test
		Levene's Test for Equality of Variances		t-test for Equality of Means
		F	Sig.	t	df	Sig. (2-tailed)	Mean Difference	Std. Error Difference	95% Confidence Interval of the Difference
									Lower	Upper
Trade	Equal variances assumed	4.398	.052	-1.597	16	.130	-55212.96333	34562.59822	-128482.39846	18056.47179
	Equal variances not assumed			-1.597	8.052	.149	-55212.96333	34562.59822	-134824.45974	24398.53307

Group Statistics
	VAR00001	N	Mean	Std. Deviation	Std. Error Mean
trade	before IAFTA India import	9	14417.0044	8846.59630	2948.86543
trade	after IAFTA India import	9	43177.1344	7570.28938	2523.42979

Independent Samples Test
		Levene's Test for Equality of Variances		t-test for Equality of Means
		F	Sig.	t	df	Sig. (2-tailed)	Mean Difference	Std. Error Difference	95% Confidence Interval of the Difference
									Lower	Upper
trade	Equal variances assumed	1.968	.180	-7.410	16	.000	-28760.13000	3881.17318	-36987.84960	-20532.41040
	Equal variances not assumed			-7.410	15.627	.000	-28760.13000	3881.17318	-37003.85125	-20516.40875